Overview
Effective conservation requires reliable information about population trends. My research develops and evaluates methods for monitoring bird populations, with particular focus on addressing biases in survey data, combining information from multiple monitoring programs, and improving the rigor of population assessments.
Composite Trend Analysis
Single monitoring programs rarely capture the full picture of population status. I have developed methods for combining trends from disparate monitoring programs to provide more comprehensive assessments of population change. This approach has been applied to wintering raptors in the Northwestern USA and vultures in Africa, revealing population trends that would be missed by any single program alone.
Addressing Survey Biases
All monitoring programs are subject to biases that can affect inference about population dynamics. My research identifies and quantifies these biases, including site selection bias in nest box studies, observer effects in road surveys, and the challenges of interpreting data from non-random sampling designs. This work helps practitioners design better monitoring programs and interpret existing data more accurately.
The American Kestrel Partnership
I founded and directed the American Kestrel Partnership, a citizen science program engaging thousands of volunteers in monitoring nest boxes across North America. This program has generated valuable data on kestrel population dynamics while also providing insights into the power and limitations of nest box monitoring for understanding population trends.
Selected Publications
- Recognize nuance when interpreting monitoring results Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2024
- Pitfalls arising from site selection bias in population monitoring defy simple heuristics Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2023
- Composite population trends reveal status of wintering diurnal raptors in the Northwestern USA Biological Conservation, 2023
- Simulations reveal the power and peril of artificial breeding sites for monitoring and managing animals Ecological Applications, 2017
- Demography of a widespread raptor across disparate regions Ibis, 2021